Denver Aims for the AFC’s Top Seed.

The Denver Broncos enter Week 18 with the AFC West title already secured, but an even bigger prize remains within reach. At 13–3, Denver can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs with a win over the Los Angeles Chargers, earning both a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Denver head coach Sean Payton has his team positioned well, especially given that the Chargers will rest several starters. Los Angeles head coach Jim Harbaugh confirmed that quarterback Justin Herbert will not play, and other injured starters are also expected to sit. As a result, Denver enters the matchup as a heavy favorite, with oddsmakers projecting a low-scoring contest. Statistically, the two teams are relatively close on offense. The Chargers rank just outside the top ten in total offense, while Denver sits slightly higher, buoyed by a strong passing attack led by rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Neither team excels on the ground, but both average over 22 points per game. Defense is where this matchup strongly favors Denver. The Broncos rank among the league’s top units, particularly against the run, while also holding opponents under 20 points per game. The Chargers also boast a solid defense, but the absence of key starters could limit their effectiveness against a motivated Denver team.

Several keys will determine Sunday’s outcome. Denver must avoid complacency against a Chargers squad led by a backup quarterback, something that has caused problems in the past. Finishing drives in the red zone is another priority, as recent games have stalled for field goals instead of touchdowns. Controlling the tempo, dominating time of possession, and limiting unnecessary risks will help the Broncos dictate the game. Equally important is player health. If Denver builds a comfortable lead, resting starters late could prevent injuries ahead of the playoffs. Ultimately, the formula remains simple: play disciplined football, capitalize on opportunities, and outscore the opponent. If the Broncos do that, they will enter the postseason as the AFC’s top seed.