Can the youth movement in Denver propel the team back to the NBA Finals?

How many Jenga pieces can the Nuggets' management extract before the entire Nikola Jokic era falters?While the term "falter" may be an exaggeration, this team remains a contender for the championship, albeit with a significantly reduced margin for error. The Nuggets are fortunate to have the best player in the league, Jokic, who is capable of delivering over 50 wins, provided he maintains his health. Additionally, the roster includes experienced veterans such as Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, with newcomer Russell Westbrook potentially joining their ranks. This is a Nuggets team that once held a 20-point lead in the second half of Game 7 against the Timberwolves during last season's playoffs, only to relinquish that advantage. Had they secured that victory, Denver could have advanced past Dallas and made a return to the NBA Finals. "After a season where everyone claims we failed, it is my responsibility to ensure we do not internalize that negativity," stated Nuggets coach Michael Malone during media day. "We are a strong team. Over the past six years, no other team in the West has come close to our achievements. Keep that in mind, but also push yourself to avoid complacency." A significant aspect of this challenge involves a substantial commitment from GM Calvin Booth and the front office towards their drafting and player development strategies to compensate for the pieces that have been removed.

Let’s dive into the young players the Nuggets are relying on to make an impact this season.    How old is Christian Braun? Braun is a 23-year-old guard who is entering his third season in the NBA after spending three years at Kansas. He is anticipated to take over the starting position previously held by KCP, although Malone mentioned that Julian Strawther will also have a chance to compete for it. This is a significant responsibility for Braun, as he will need to stretch the floor with his shooting. Last season, he hit 38.4% of his three-point attempts on two shots per game, while Caldwell-Pope managed 40.6% on 4.1 attempts. Additionally, Braun will face the toughest perimeter defensive challenges each game. Although he has shown potential as a solid defender, KCP was a recognized plus defender and even received All-Defensive Team consideration. Braun will need to elevate his game on both ends of the court to meet these expectations.   When was Peyton Watson drafted? Watson, who played one season at UCLA, was selected as the last pick of the first round, 30th overall, in the 2022 NBA Draft. This was the same draft where Denver picked Braun, but the Thunder selected Watson and then traded him to the Nuggets on draft night as part of a deal involving JaMychael Green. Last season, Watson averaged 6.7 points and 3.2 rebounds per game while coming off the bench for 18 minutes a night, showcasing his athleticism and defensive skills. This season, his role is set to grow, and the Nuggets will need him to improve his jump shot—he shot 29.6% from beyond the arc last season—and become a more significant offensive contributor. Like Braun, the Nuggets are counting on him to step into a bigger role.

Julian Strawther could be the standout player among them. The second-year wing from Gonzaga showed great potential for the Nuggets during his rookie season until a knee injury put him on the sidelines. However, he appeared to be back in form at the Summer League, showcasing his readiness to take a significant step forward.  He has the ability to rise above the rest of this young roster. While he’s recognized for his shooting, he only managed to hit 29.7% from beyond the arc last season, so improving his consistency and defensive performance is crucial.  Denver was initially planning to rely heavily on another young talent, DaRon Holmes II, a rookie center from Dayton, for backup minutes at the five spot. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn right Achilles tendon during the Nuggets’ NBA Summer League opener and will miss the entire season.  Despite the emphasis on the youth needing to elevate their game, the reality of Denver’s prospects is much more straightforward.

DENVER'S SUCCESS RELIES ON MURRAY'S PERFORMANCE  but Don’t overlook Nikola Jokic: Last season, he averaged an impressive 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9 assists per game while shooting 35.9% from beyond the arc, all while facing intense defensive pressure. He’s a consistent MVP contender for a reason. Jokic has shown remarkable durability, playing 79 games last season and never fewer than 69 in any of his seasons. Both Jokic and Gordon are dependable players. The younger talent on the team should hold up well, at least until the later stages of the playoffs. For Denver to make a return to the Finals, Jamal Murray needs to elevate his game compared to last postseason. He faced challenges with his shooting during the playoffs and has a history of injuries. While his playoff averages of 20.6 points and 5.8 assists per game seem solid (and he did hit a couple of game-winners against the Lakers), his overall efficiency was lacking. Murray shot just 31.5% from three-point range in the playoffs, with a true shooting percentage of 47.4, which is significantly below the league average. His playoff PER was 12.2, indicating performance more typical of a solid bench player. Things didn’t improve during the Paris Olympics, where he averaged only six points per game and shot a mere 14.3% from three for Canada, leading to a reduced role on the team. Denver president Josh Kroenke defended Murray, stating he wasn’t fully healthy during the playoffs or the Olympics. The Nuggets backed this up by signing him to a four-year, $208 million max contract extension. Murray is being compensated like one of the top players in the league, and Denver is banking on his return to championship-level play. The unique pick-and-roll synergy between Murray and Jokic is a key factor; when they’re in sync, the Nuggets have a strong chance of winning it all. This is why the Nuggets committed to Murray through Jokic’s prime, investing in him as one of the elite point guards in the league, and now it’s time for him to consistently deliver on that promise. “In an ideal scenario, I believe Nikola has a prime 10-year window for contention.”

NUGGETS FANTASY PREVIEW

While the Eastern Conference has seen some top teams improve, the Western Conference remains the stronger of the two overall. This is why I doubt the Nuggets will make it back to the NBA Finals, especially after losing another key player, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, this offseason. The big question is, who will fill the gap left by KCP? Many believe Christian Braun is the frontrunner for the starting spot due to his athleticism and solid defensive skills. However, could Julian Strawther actually be a better option, despite not being as strong defensively as Braun?

In his limited time during the Summer League in Las Vegas, Strawther really shined. While that setting can't compare to the intensity of regular-season play, it certainly helped boost his confidence after a rookie season plagued by injuries. Braun might be the player that fantasy managers are most excited about, especially if he secures that fifth starting position, but don’t underestimate Strawther, even if he comes off the bench. The Nuggets may struggle to reach the NBA Finals unless Michael Porter Jr. significantly elevates his performance. Nevertheless, Strawther could be a valuable pick, particularly in deeper fantasy leagues.

During media day, head coach Mike Malone mentioned that Christian Braun and Julian Strawther will be vying for the fifth starting position. Braun has a track record of success at every level and excels at making the small plays that contribute to team victories. Malone noted that both Braun and Peyton Watson dedicated significant time this summer to improving their long-range shooting, an area where they have struggled early in their careers. In contrast, Strawther is already an exceptional shooter, having recorded two games with over five 3-pointers early last season. He shone in the last two Summer Leagues and seems poised to take on a bigger role in his second year. Another player to watch is Trey Alexander. The rookie quickly signed with the Nuggets after going undrafted this summer and had a standout performance during Summer League. In five games, he averaged 17.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, and 2.2 three-pointers per game. While success in Summer League doesn’t always translate to the NBA, it certainly sets a positive tone. If these young talents can rise to the occasion, Denver could very well find themselves back in the Finals, aiming for a second championship in three years.