Men's Frozen Four: Overview of the Championship, Forecasts, and Statistics
- Dwayne
- Apr 10
- 7 min read
The 2025 men's Frozen Four, the pinnacle of the NCAA hockey tournament, showcases two seasoned teams alongside two newcomers. The semifinal matchups consist of familiar rivals and teams encountering each other for the first time. Scheduled for Thursday at 5 and 8:30 p.m. ET at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, the winners will compete in the final on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. All three games will be broadcast on ESPN2 and available for streaming on ESPN+. In the opening game on Thursday, the reigning national champion Denver Pioneers will defend their title against Western Michigan, a fellow NCHC team making its inaugural Frozen Four appearance. The two teams have faced each other three times this season, with the Broncos defeating Denver in double overtime during the NCHC championship after splitting their regular-season encounters. The other semifinal features Boston University, returning to the national semifinals for the third consecutive year, against Penn State, which is making its first Frozen Four appearance. This matchup marks the first encounter between the Terriers and the Nittany Lions. Notably, Western Michigan is the only top-four overall seed to reach the Frozen Four, a rare occurrence since 2011 when only one of the top seeds advanced this far. Boston College, Michigan State, and Maine were all eliminated in the regional rounds. In terms of NHL prospects, a total of 38 players from the Frozen Four teams have been drafted. Boston University leads with 14 players, followed by Denver with 13, Western Michigan with 8, and Penn State with 3. Below is an analysis of what each of the four teams must achieve to secure the national title, featuring insights from ESPN college hockey analysts Colby Cohen and Andrew Raycroft, along with key players to watch and important statistics from ESPN research.
Denver (31-11-1)
How the Pioneers reached this point: As the No. 3 seed in the Manchester Regional, Denver showcased their strength by defeating Providence 5-1, followed by a victory over the top-seeded Boston College, winning 3-1 in a rematch of last year's national championship. The Pioneers established a 2-0 advantage early in the second period, although BC managed to score just before the period ended. Matt Davis was instrumental, making 15 of his 35 saves in the final period, while Zeev Buium sealed the victory with an empty-net goal. James Reeder celebrated with his Denver teammates after scoring in the triumph over Boston College. Key statistics: A national championship would mark the 11th in Denver's history, enabling the program to achieve back-to-back titles for the fourth time and three championships in four years. Additionally, the Pioneers have secured at least 30 wins for the fourth consecutive season. Jack Devine (13 goals, 44 assists) and Aidan Thompson (20 goals, 34 assists) rank first and second nationally in points, while Buium (13 goals, 35 assists) leads all defensemen in scoring. How Denver can secure the national title: Back pressure creates challenges for opponents: Denver's forwards excel at returning through the middle, applying significant pressure on rival teams attempting to advance through the neutral zone and on the rush. This strategy allows the Denver defense to maintain tight gaps and force turnovers. When DU applies back pressure as effectively as they did in the regionals, they become nearly unbeatable. Special teams remain exceptional: Denver's power play operates at an impressive 30% efficiency. In a low-scoring, single-elimination format, a power-play goal can prove decisive. The Pioneers' excellent movement and array of dangerous players make their power play a significant advantage. Player to monitor: Zeev Buium. This prospective NHL talent can influence a game both with and without the puck. His skating, puck-handling skills, and vision are exceptional, allowing him to take control of a game at any moment, as demonstrated in Manchester. Notably, Buium tends to elevate his performance in high-pressure situations.
Western Michigan (32-7-1)
How the Broncos reached this point: As the top seed in the Fargo Regional, Western Michigan required double overtime to secure a 2-1 victory over Minnesota State, with Grant Slukynsky scoring the decisive goal. They then triumphed over UMass with a score of 2-1, overcoming an initial 1-0 deficit through power-play goals from Liam Valente and Tim Washe during the same five-minute major penalty. The Broncos subsequently had to successfully defend against a five-minute major penalty of their own to hold off the Minutemen.
Key statistics: The Broncos have achieved a franchise-record 32 wins and are currently on an eight-game winning streak, the longest in the nation. Western Michigan is recognized as one of the most well-rounded teams, averaging 3.95 goals per game, which ranks second only to Denver's 4.00, while allowing just 2.05 goals per game, the fourth lowest in the country. Goaltender Hampton Slukynsky has conceded only two goals in 147:14 minutes, resulting in a remarkable 0.82 goals-against average, the best among all goalies in the tournament. Path to the national title for Western Michigan: Depth in forward lines: The Broncos exhibit minimal decline in performance from their first line to their fourth. They will need to utilize all four lines to exhaust their opponents, starting with the Pioneers.
Hampton Slukynsky's exceptional performance: The freshman goaltender has demonstrated his skills by stopping 28 of 29 shots in both games played in Fargo. A draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings, he holds a record of 17-5-1 and must perform at his peak for Western Michigan to claim the championship. Player to keep an eye on: Liam Valente. The Swedish winger contributed to three of his team's four goals in Fargo. With a powerful shot, he will need to find opportunities to unleash it against Denver and goaltender Matt Davis.
Boston University (23-13-2)
How the Terriers arrived at this point: As the No. 2 seed in the Toledo Regional, Boston University overwhelmed Ohio State with six consecutive goals, securing an 8-3 victory. They then clinched their third consecutive appearance in the Frozen Four when Quinn Hutson scored 6:25 into overtime, narrowly defeating No. 4 seed Cornell 3-2. Freshman Mikhail Yegorov made an impressive 37 saves in just his 16th career game for the Terriers.
Key statistics: BU head coach Jay Pandolfo boasts an unblemished record of 10-0 in NCAA regional games as both a player and coach, leading to seven Frozen Four appearances. He is only the third Division I men's hockey coach to reach the Frozen Four in each of his first three seasons, joining the ranks of Doug Woog (Minnesota) and Dave Hakstol (North Dakota). Despite their recent achievements, the Terriers have not competed in the national championship game since 2015. Brothers Quinn and Cole Hutson are the leading scorers for BU this season, with Quinn amassing 50 points and Cole contributing 46 points, including two goals and four assists during the tournament in Toledo.
Strategies for BU to secure the national title: Exploit offensive transitions: BU is an agile offensive team that thrives on creating opportunities during fast breaks. Their speed and quick transitions have proven effective in the tournament, allowing them to capitalize on rush plays. Strengthen defensive play: While BU has not traditionally been recognized for its defensive capabilities, they demonstrated resilience against Cornell by tightening their defense around the net and minimizing second and third chances. Goalie Mikhail Yegorov is adept at stopping initial shots, so if BU can maintain strong defensive play, they significantly enhance their chances of contending for the championship.
Player to monitor: Cole Hutson. Cole is among the most electrifying players in hockey, extending beyond just the NCAA. His poise and offensive acumen are reminiscent of his brother Lane, a BU alumnus and current Montreal Canadiens player who is a frontrunner for the Calder Trophy. Cole consistently excels in high-pressure situations, as evidenced by his performances in the Beanpot, the gold medal game at the World Juniors, and the Toledo Regional. It will be thrilling to see how he performs in the Frozen Four.
Penn State (22-13-4)
How the Nittany Lions reached this point: After conceding an early goal to Maine, the top seed in Allentown, No. 4 seed Penn State responded emphatically by scoring three goals in the first period, ultimately winning the match 5-1. They then secured their first Frozen Four appearance by defeating No. 2 seed UConn 3-2, thanks to Matt DiMarsico's goal at 17:56 of overtime. Arsenii Sergeev made an impressive 42 saves during this thrilling overtime encounter. Key statistics: Since January 11, Penn State has recorded only three losses, achieving a record of 14-3-3 during this period. The Nittany Lions are the first No. 4 seed from a regional to reach the Frozen Four since Providence in 2019. Sophomore Aiden Fink leads the team with 23 goals and 30 assists, marking the highest point total among underclassmen nationwide, while Charlie Cerrato enters the Frozen Four with 27 assists, just one short of the school record for freshmen set by Denis Smirnov in 2016-17.
How Penn State can secure the national title: Maintain the momentum: Penn State's remarkable journey continues after starting the Big Ten season with a record of 0-8-1. It is evident that the hottest team in the nation received significant support from the local crowd during the Allentown Regional. The question now is whether the Nittany Lions can harness that energy in St. Louis as they aim to defeat a third consecutive Hockey East opponent. Leverage team speed: Penn State caught both Maine and UConn off guard in the first periods of their regional matches, utilizing their speed to create chaos in the neutral zone. The Nittany Lions will not surprise Boston University, and whether they can outpace the Terriers will be a crucial factor.
Player to monitor: Charlie Cerrato. The freshman center recorded five assists across two regional games. With Cerrato centering wingers Matt DiMarsico and fellow freshman JJ Wiebusch, the Lions' second line has been instrumental in their offensive success, including the stunning overtime goal that secured victory against UConn.
