One Statistic That Explains the Astros’ Confidence in Hunter Brown.

The Houston Astros appear ready to move forward without longtime starter Framber Valdez, and their confidence stems largely from the rapid rise of right-hander Hunter Brown. As Valdez seeks a lengthy free-agent contract reportedly worth nine figures, Houston has shown little interest in matching that price. Instead, the organization seems prepared to hand the responsibility of leading the rotation to Brown as early as the 2026 season. A major reason for that trust can be found in one standout statistic: Brown’s 32.2 percent hard-hit rate during the 2025 season. According to MLB.com, that figure ranked second-lowest among 151 pitchers who allowed at least 250 batted balls, trailing only Ranger Suárez. Hard-hit rate measures how often opposing hitters make strong contact, and Brown’s ability to limit that contact places him among the most effective pitchers in the league. That success is supported by other advanced metrics. Baseball Savant data shows Brown ranking well above league average in strikeout rate, barrel rate, and whiff percentage, all indicators of a pitcher who consistently overpowers hitters. His 28.3 percent strikeout rate ranked in the 85th percentile, while his barrel rate of just 5.9 percent further demonstrated his command and pitch quality.

Traditional statistics tell the same story. During the 2025 campaign, Brown posted a 12–9 record with a 2.43 ERA across 31 starts. He logged a career-high 185.1 innings, struck out 206 batters, and earned his first All-Star selection. His performance also placed him third in American League Cy Young voting, a finish that rewarded the Astros with a prospect performance incentive draft pick. Through three full Major League seasons, Brown has compiled a 36–31 record with a 3.49 ERA and more than 500 strikeouts. Just as important for Houston, he is entering arbitration for the first time, allowing the team to retain him at a manageable cost for several more years. With financial flexibility and elite performance aligning, the Astros may even explore a long-term extension similar to those previously signed by franchise cornerstones like José Altuve.

For now, one statistic stands above the rest. Brown’s ability to prevent hard contact not only explains Houston’s confidence but also signals that the Astros may already have their next ace firmly in place.