Why the White Sox Might Gamble on Former Rockies All-Star Germán Márquez.

Germán Márquez is unlikely to appear near the top of free-agent pitching rankings this offseason. After turning in one of the roughest seasons by any starter in 2025, the 30-year-old right-hander enters free agency surrounded by questions rather than confidence. In 126.1 innings last year, Márquez posted a 3–16 record with a bloated 6.70 ERA, performance that mirrored a disastrous 43–119 campaign for the Colorado Rockies. Still, for a rebuilding club like the Chicago White Sox, Márquez could represent a low-cost opportunity with upside.

At first glance, the statistics are alarming. Márquez ranked near the bottom of the league across most major pitching metrics. Despite maintaining respectable fastball velocity, his pitches consistently failed to deceive hitters. Opponents hit .358 against his four-seam fastball and .350 against his sinker, while his slider was hit at an even higher rate. Only his curveball provided consistent effectiveness, limiting batters to a .208 average. Overall, Márquez struggled to miss bats, ranking in the bottom tier of the league in whiff rate, and nearly half of the contact against him was classified as hard-hit. His ground-ball rate also dipped below league average, a dangerous combination for a pitcher working in Colorado’s thin air.

However, those surface-level numbers may not tell the full story. One factor working against Márquez has long been his home ballpark. Coors Field is notoriously unforgiving to pitchers, particularly those who rely on breaking balls. While his road performance in 2025 failed to stand out, history suggests Márquez has often been far more effective away from Denver. For example, in 2022 he finished with a nearly five-run ERA overall, but posted a much more respectable mark in road starts. A move away from Colorado—especially to a park like Guaranteed Rate Field, which is hitter-friendly but far less extreme—could help stabilize his results. The more significant explanation for Márquez’s struggles may be health-related. After just four starts in 2023, he underwent Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for most of that season and the first half of 2024. His attempted return in 2024 was short-lived, as elbow complications limited him to a single appearance. As a result, 2025 marked his first season attempting to pitch regularly following extensive rehabilitation. Historically, many pitchers do not regain their full effectiveness until the second full season after Tommy John surgery, placing Márquez’s true recovery window in 2026. Now approaching his age-31 season, Márquez still has time to reclaim some of his former effectiveness. A healthy offseason combined with a new environment could allow him to refine his mechanics and command. Working under White Sox pitching director Brian Bannister and pitching coach Zach Bove may provide the structure and analytical support needed for adjustment.

While safer and more reliable rotation options exist, the rapidly inflating pitching market could push those arms beyond Chicago’s budget. If established mid-tier starters become too expensive, the White Sox may opt for a higher-risk, higher-reward signing. In that context, Márquez makes sense as a short-term gamble. If the experiment fails, the team can pivot early and open opportunities for younger pitchers. If it succeeds, Chicago could uncover meaningful value at a minimal cost.